IndustryCocoaIntel· Sep 2, 2026T4 · Press
The ICE December arabica contract closed at 309.45 c/lb on 1 September after touching 299.20 intraday, its lowest since early August. Safras & Mercado put Brazil's 2026/27 harvest at 97% complete as of 26 August (arabica 96%), with Conab forecasting a record 66.7 million bags, and Rabobank's late-August quarterly report projected a global surplus of 8.9 million bags for 2026/27 with output near 180 million bags for the first time. The bearish picture is tempered by ICE certified stocks sitting at a 27-year low and El Nino risk to Brazil's September-October flowering.
Why it matters: After two years of deficit-driven highs, the market is pricing a Brazil-led surplus, so green and retail prices should ease into 2027 unless the flowering window fails; if you buy in bulk, there is little reason to stock up now.
Published Sep 2, 2026 · collected Sep 5, 2026
IndustryPerfect Daily Grind· Aug 28, 2026T4 · Press
Certified arabica stocks on ICE slipped to 226,242 bags in the week to 28 August, just above the November 2023 low of 224,000, and by 31 August had fallen to 223,976 bags, the lowest since 1999. The drawdown is blamed on Buenaventura port disruption after Colombia's earthquake and the slow Brazilian harvest. Separately, a Reuters analyst poll forecast arabica at around $3/lb by year-end and robusta recovering to about $3,900/tonne, and Vietnam reported January-July exports up 21.1% to 1.51 million tonnes with the average export price down 8.1% to $5,313/tonne.
Why it matters: Exchange inventories this thin make the futures curve jumpy even as the fundamental outlook softens, so expect volatility in green pricing for washed Central and South American lots for the next couple of months rather than a smooth decline.
Published Aug 28, 2026 · collected Sep 5, 2026
IndustryOhio's Country JournalT4 · Press
Nearly a month after the magnitude 7.4 earthquake of 10 August, exports through Buenaventura, which handles roughly 60% of Colombia's coffee, remain constrained by landslide damage on the Buga-Buenaventura corridor, and the FNC has suspended much of its operations in Caldas and Risaralda, departments that produce about a quarter of the national crop. Exporters are rerouting through Cartagena, Santa Marta and Puerto Antioquia, but market commentary now expects Colombian supply to stay short until the main harvest arrives in November.
Why it matters: Fresh-crop washed Colombians will be scarcer and more expensive this autumn, so lock in favourite lots early or lean on Central American and Peruvian alternatives for a few months.
Publication date unknown · collected Sep 5, 2026