IndustryCocoaIntel· Sep 2, 2026
The ICE December arabica contract closed at 309.45 c/lb on 1 September after touching 299.20 intraday, its lowest since early August. Safras & Mercado put Brazil's 2026/27 harvest at 97% complete as of 26 August (arabica 96%), with Conab forecasting a record 66.7 million bags, and Rabobank's late-August quarterly report projected a global surplus of 8.9 million bags for 2026/27 with output near 180 million bags for the first time. The bearish picture is tempered by ICE certified stocks sitting at a 27-year low and El Nino risk to Brazil's September-October flowering.
Why it matters: After two years of deficit-driven highs, the market is pricing a Brazil-led surplus, so green and retail prices should ease into 2027 unless the flowering window fails; if you buy in bulk, there is little reason to stock up now.
IndustryDaily Coffee News· Aug 28, 2026
Hurricane Lala passed just south of Hawaii Island on 15 August, triggering a flash-flood emergency in Ka'u that washed out roads, bridges and water systems as farms were starting to pick. Some growers on the mauka side of Holualoa in Kona report losing 20% or more of their trees, mostly to larger trees coming down. A preliminary state tally put Big Island farm damage at $761,150, with 90 farms and ranches across three counties reporting $3.58 million in losses over 380 acres, and USDA has opened disaster assistance for affected producers; many Kona farms were still recovering from the March Kona-low storms.
Why it matters: Expect the 2026-27 Ka'u and Kona crops to be smaller and pricier, and give farms buying-direct a break if lot releases slip; this is the second weather hit to Hawaiian coffee this year.
IndustryPerfect Daily Grind· Aug 28, 2026
Certified arabica stocks on ICE slipped to 226,242 bags in the week to 28 August, just above the November 2023 low of 224,000, and by 31 August had fallen to 223,976 bags, the lowest since 1999. The drawdown is blamed on Buenaventura port disruption after Colombia's earthquake and the slow Brazilian harvest. Separately, a Reuters analyst poll forecast arabica at around $3/lb by year-end and robusta recovering to about $3,900/tonne, and Vietnam reported January-July exports up 21.1% to 1.51 million tonnes with the average export price down 8.1% to $5,313/tonne.
Why it matters: Exchange inventories this thin make the futures curve jumpy even as the fundamental outlook softens, so expect volatility in green pricing for washed Central and South American lots for the next couple of months rather than a smooth decline.
BeansSprudge
Tucson's Presta Coffee Roasters has released three separate lots from Al-Khanshali Estate, the Yemeni farm project started by Port of Mokha founder Mokhtar Alkhanshali after eight years working with Yemeni growers. The lots are from the 2025 harvest, sold in 4 oz bags at $30 to $40 each or as a three-lot set for $95; one lot is described as ripe pineapple and chocolate-covered strawberry opening into hibiscus with a creamy body.
Why it matters: Yemen arrives in consuming countries this quarter and estate-level, lot-separated Yemeni coffee is still very rare; the 4 oz format makes a side-by-side of three lots affordable.
BeansSey Coffee
Sey's 2026 Colombia line-up from William Ortiz (La Cabaña, Pitalito, Huila, 1,700 masl) now includes a single-variety Aji lot, the first time Sey has offered this rare Colombian variety from him. Cherries are floated, held overnight, de-pulped, dry-fermented for 36 hours, washed and dried on raised beds to 10.5% moisture. Sey describes the cup as rose, açaí and ripe raspberry. Sibling lots from the same farm include Chiroso, Pink Bourbon and a second-harvest Chiroso.
Why it matters: Aji is one of the few Colombian varieties with a cup as floral and fruit-driven as Gesha; this is a rare chance to compare Aji, Chiroso and Pink Bourbon from one producer and one process.
IndustryOhio's Country Journal
Nearly a month after the magnitude 7.4 earthquake of 10 August, exports through Buenaventura, which handles roughly 60% of Colombia's coffee, remain constrained by landslide damage on the Buga-Buenaventura corridor, and the FNC has suspended much of its operations in Caldas and Risaralda, departments that produce about a quarter of the national crop. Exporters are rerouting through Cartagena, Santa Marta and Puerto Antioquia, but market commentary now expects Colombian supply to stay short until the main harvest arrives in November.
Why it matters: Fresh-crop washed Colombians will be scarcer and more expensive this autumn, so lock in favourite lots early or lean on Central American and Peruvian alternatives for a few months.
BeansSey Coffee
Sey's 2026 Peru release from Carlos Saenz (Machay Pata, in the valley around Amaybamba) is a washed lot of the SL9 variety, de-pulped on the day of harvest, wet-fermented for 32 hours and dried on raised beds to 10.5% moisture. Sey describes the cup as mango, jasmine and lychee. It joins other 2026 Peru lots from the Saenz family and Gilber Huayllas as the new Peruvian crop lands.
Why it matters: Peru is at peak freshness now and SL9 is a variety most drinkers have never tasted; this is a clean washed benchmark for the origin before the more common Typica and Caturra lots arrive.
ResearchCrop Science
A University of Florida IFAS team (Suela and colleagues, Tropical Research and Education Center, Homestead) planted 48 arabica seedlings of four cultivars (Fronton, Limani, Typica and Obatã) in May 2023 and tracked them through 2025, the first year the trees were mature enough for representative yield data. Average fresh-cherry yield ranged from roughly 3 to 6 kg per tree across cultivars, and the beans showed some favourable physical and chemical traits, while the paper flags climate, soil, labour and management hurdles for any commercial Florida coffee. Caveats: a single lowland subtropical site, a tiny plot, one harvest, and no reported cup scores from a calibrated panel.
Why it matters: Do not expect Florida coffee in your grinder soon, but this is the first peer-reviewed yield data for arabica grown at sea level in the continental US, and the cultivars chosen (rust-resistant Obatã, Puerto Rican Fronton and Limani) hint at what 'climate-adapted' specialty varieties may look like.