IndustryCocoaIntel· Sep 2, 2026
The ICE December arabica contract closed at 309.45 c/lb on 1 September after touching 299.20 intraday, its lowest since early August. Safras & Mercado put Brazil's 2026/27 harvest at 97% complete as of 26 August (arabica 96%), with Conab forecasting a record 66.7 million bags, and Rabobank's late-August quarterly report projected a global surplus of 8.9 million bags for 2026/27 with output near 180 million bags for the first time. The bearish picture is tempered by ICE certified stocks sitting at a 27-year low and El Nino risk to Brazil's September-October flowering.
Why it matters: After two years of deficit-driven highs, the market is pricing a Brazil-led surplus, so green and retail prices should ease into 2027 unless the flowering window fails; if you buy in bulk, there is little reason to stock up now.
IndustryDaily Coffee News· Aug 28, 2026
Hurricane Lala passed just south of Hawaii Island on 15 August, triggering a flash-flood emergency in Ka'u that washed out roads, bridges and water systems as farms were starting to pick. Some growers on the mauka side of Holualoa in Kona report losing 20% or more of their trees, mostly to larger trees coming down. A preliminary state tally put Big Island farm damage at $761,150, with 90 farms and ranches across three counties reporting $3.58 million in losses over 380 acres, and USDA has opened disaster assistance for affected producers; many Kona farms were still recovering from the March Kona-low storms.
Why it matters: Expect the 2026-27 Ka'u and Kona crops to be smaller and pricier, and give farms buying-direct a break if lot releases slip; this is the second weather hit to Hawaiian coffee this year.
ResearchCrop Science
A University of Florida IFAS team (Suela and colleagues, Tropical Research and Education Center, Homestead) planted 48 arabica seedlings of four cultivars (Fronton, Limani, Typica and Obatã) in May 2023 and tracked them through 2025, the first year the trees were mature enough for representative yield data. Average fresh-cherry yield ranged from roughly 3 to 6 kg per tree across cultivars, and the beans showed some favourable physical and chemical traits, while the paper flags climate, soil, labour and management hurdles for any commercial Florida coffee. Caveats: a single lowland subtropical site, a tiny plot, one harvest, and no reported cup scores from a calibrated panel.
Why it matters: Do not expect Florida coffee in your grinder soon, but this is the first peer-reviewed yield data for arabica grown at sea level in the continental US, and the cultivars chosen (rust-resistant Obatã, Puerto Rican Fronton and Limani) hint at what 'climate-adapted' specialty varieties may look like.