IndustryCocoaIntel· Sep 2, 2026
The ICE December arabica contract closed at 309.45 c/lb on 1 September after touching 299.20 intraday, its lowest since early August. Safras & Mercado put Brazil's 2026/27 harvest at 97% complete as of 26 August (arabica 96%), with Conab forecasting a record 66.7 million bags, and Rabobank's late-August quarterly report projected a global surplus of 8.9 million bags for 2026/27 with output near 180 million bags for the first time. The bearish picture is tempered by ICE certified stocks sitting at a 27-year low and El Nino risk to Brazil's September-October flowering.
Why it matters: After two years of deficit-driven highs, the market is pricing a Brazil-led surplus, so green and retail prices should ease into 2027 unless the flowering window fails; if you buy in bulk, there is little reason to stock up now.
BeansNewsroom Panama· Aug 8, 2026
The 30th Best of Panama announced its 2026 winners on 1 August: Elida Estate took Geisha Washed at 96.25 points, Lérida Estate took Geisha Natural at 95.63, Altieri Specialty Coffee won Varietals at 93.63 and Hacienda La Esmeralda won the Copa Panamá for highest accumulated score. Forty lots are now held under external audit at the Specialty Coffee Association of Panama ahead of the international electronic auction on 23 September 2026. Last year's auction set the all-time record of $30,204 per kg for an Esmeralda washed Geisha.
Why it matters: The auction sets the price ceiling for the whole Gesha market; if you want a 2026 BoP lot, watch roasters like Proud Mary, Archers and Onyx in October to December when the winning lots ship.
IndustryPerfect Daily Grind· Aug 28, 2026
Certified arabica stocks on ICE slipped to 226,242 bags in the week to 28 August, just above the November 2023 low of 224,000, and by 31 August had fallen to 223,976 bags, the lowest since 1999. The drawdown is blamed on Buenaventura port disruption after Colombia's earthquake and the slow Brazilian harvest. Separately, a Reuters analyst poll forecast arabica at around $3/lb by year-end and robusta recovering to about $3,900/tonne, and Vietnam reported January-July exports up 21.1% to 1.51 million tonnes with the average export price down 8.1% to $5,313/tonne.
Why it matters: Exchange inventories this thin make the futures curve jumpy even as the fundamental outlook softens, so expect volatility in green pricing for washed Central and South American lots for the next couple of months rather than a smooth decline.
BeansSprudge
Tucson's Presta Coffee Roasters has released three separate lots from Al-Khanshali Estate, the Yemeni farm project started by Port of Mokha founder Mokhtar Alkhanshali after eight years working with Yemeni growers. The lots are from the 2025 harvest, sold in 4 oz bags at $30 to $40 each or as a three-lot set for $95; one lot is described as ripe pineapple and chocolate-covered strawberry opening into hibiscus with a creamy body.
Why it matters: Yemen arrives in consuming countries this quarter and estate-level, lot-separated Yemeni coffee is still very rare; the 4 oz format makes a side-by-side of three lots affordable.