IndustryCocoaIntel· Sep 2, 2026
The ICE December arabica contract closed at 309.45 c/lb on 1 September after touching 299.20 intraday, its lowest since early August. Safras & Mercado put Brazil's 2026/27 harvest at 97% complete as of 26 August (arabica 96%), with Conab forecasting a record 66.7 million bags, and Rabobank's late-August quarterly report projected a global surplus of 8.9 million bags for 2026/27 with output near 180 million bags for the first time. The bearish picture is tempered by ICE certified stocks sitting at a 27-year low and El Nino risk to Brazil's September-October flowering.
Why it matters: After two years of deficit-driven highs, the market is pricing a Brazil-led surplus, so green and retail prices should ease into 2027 unless the flowering window fails; if you buy in bulk, there is little reason to stock up now.
IndustryDaily Coffee News· Aug 28, 2026
Hurricane Lala passed just south of Hawaii Island on 15 August, triggering a flash-flood emergency in Ka'u that washed out roads, bridges and water systems as farms were starting to pick. Some growers on the mauka side of Holualoa in Kona report losing 20% or more of their trees, mostly to larger trees coming down. A preliminary state tally put Big Island farm damage at $761,150, with 90 farms and ranches across three counties reporting $3.58 million in losses over 380 acres, and USDA has opened disaster assistance for affected producers; many Kona farms were still recovering from the March Kona-low storms.
Why it matters: Expect the 2026-27 Ka'u and Kona crops to be smaller and pricier, and give farms buying-direct a break if lot releases slip; this is the second weather hit to Hawaiian coffee this year.
IndustryPerfect Daily Grind· Aug 28, 2026
Certified arabica stocks on ICE slipped to 226,242 bags in the week to 28 August, just above the November 2023 low of 224,000, and by 31 August had fallen to 223,976 bags, the lowest since 1999. The drawdown is blamed on Buenaventura port disruption after Colombia's earthquake and the slow Brazilian harvest. Separately, a Reuters analyst poll forecast arabica at around $3/lb by year-end and robusta recovering to about $3,900/tonne, and Vietnam reported January-July exports up 21.1% to 1.51 million tonnes with the average export price down 8.1% to $5,313/tonne.
Why it matters: Exchange inventories this thin make the futures curve jumpy even as the fundamental outlook softens, so expect volatility in green pricing for washed Central and South American lots for the next couple of months rather than a smooth decline.
IndustryOhio's Country Journal
Nearly a month after the magnitude 7.4 earthquake of 10 August, exports through Buenaventura, which handles roughly 60% of Colombia's coffee, remain constrained by landslide damage on the Buga-Buenaventura corridor, and the FNC has suspended much of its operations in Caldas and Risaralda, departments that produce about a quarter of the national crop. Exporters are rerouting through Cartagena, Santa Marta and Puerto Antioquia, but market commentary now expects Colombian supply to stay short until the main harvest arrives in November.
Why it matters: Fresh-crop washed Colombians will be scarcer and more expensive this autumn, so lock in favourite lots early or lean on Central American and Peruvian alternatives for a few months.
IndustryPaulig Group· Sep 2, 2026
The Finnish roaster and food group will replace its two current business areas with three, Branded Foods, Customer Brands and Coffee, effective no later than 1 January 2027. CMO Mariell Toiger will lead the new Coffee unit. Up to 110 office and managerial positions across several countries are affected, of which a maximum of 55 may be made redundant, with CEO Rolf Ladau citing the need to stay competitive in a volatile coffee market.
Why it matters: Paulig is one of the largest roasters in the Nordics, and separating coffee out signals how much price volatility is reshaping big roasters' priorities; for consumers it is mostly a watch item for brand and range changes in 2027.