Arabica futures slipped below $3/lb intraday for the first time since early August as Brazil's record harvest wrapped up and Rabobank forecast an 8.9-million-bag surplus, even while ICE-certified stocks fell to their lowest since 1999 and Colombia's post-earthquake export bottleneck kept washed lots tight. In the lab, a Warsaw group showed that pushing an espresso puck past roughly 5 bar stops increasing flow, and a Yunnan team mapped why anaerobic naturals taste busier than washed lots from the same cherries. Best of Panama's 40 winning lots go to auction on 23 September, and Sey, Presta and Intelligentsia landed notable Colombia, Yemen and Rwanda lots. On the gear side, Mahlkönig's first home espresso machine started shipping in Germany, Bosch entered semi-automatic espresso at IFA, and April put a Timemore-built hand grinder on Kickstarter.
IndustryCocoaIntel· Sep 2, 2026
The ICE December arabica contract closed at 309.45 c/lb on 1 September after touching 299.20 intraday, its lowest since early August. Safras & Mercado put Brazil's 2026/27 harvest at 97% complete as of 26 August (arabica 96%), with Conab forecasting a record 66.7 million bags, and Rabobank's late-August quarterly report projected a global surplus of 8.9 million bags for 2026/27 with output near 180 million bags for the first time. The bearish picture is tempered by ICE certified stocks sitting at a 27-year low and El Nino risk to Brazil's September-October flowering.
Why it matters: After two years of deficit-driven highs, the market is pricing a Brazil-led surplus, so green and retail prices should ease into 2027 unless the flowering window fails; if you buy in bulk, there is little reason to stock up now.
BeansNewsroom Panama· Aug 8, 2026
The 30th Best of Panama announced its 2026 winners on 1 August: Elida Estate took Geisha Washed at 96.25 points, Lérida Estate took Geisha Natural at 95.63, Altieri Specialty Coffee won Varietals at 93.63 and Hacienda La Esmeralda won the Copa Panamá for highest accumulated score. Forty lots are now held under external audit at the Specialty Coffee Association of Panama ahead of the international electronic auction on 23 September 2026. Last year's auction set the all-time record of $30,204 per kg for an Esmeralda washed Geisha.
Why it matters: The auction sets the price ceiling for the whole Gesha market; if you want a 2026 BoP lot, watch roasters like Proud Mary, Archers and Onyx in October to December when the winning lots ship.
ResearchPhysics of Fluids· Jun 23, 2026
A University of Warsaw soft-matter group (Waszkiewicz, Lisicki and colleagues) instrumented a café-grade espresso machine and measured flow through pucks across a range of pump pressures. Up to about 5 bar the bed behaved like an ordinary porous medium (flow proportional to pressure), but above that the flow rate flattened and then fell as pressure rose: once the soluble fraction has dissolved (roughly 30-40 s in), the remaining bed is a poroelastic solid that compacts under load, and its permeability drops faster than the extra pressure can compensate. A minimal model reproduces the non-linear pressure-flow curve and the time evolution of flow during a shot. Caveat: one light-to-medium roast Brazilian coffee, one machine setup; the paper models flow and soluble concentration, not sensory outcome.
Why it matters: If your shots choke or run slow, cranking pressure above 6 bar is unlikely to help and may make the bed compact further; grind, dose and lower pressure profiles are the levers, which supports the trend toward 6-bar and declining-pressure espresso.